Just like “COVID-19” felt very strange to say this time last year, I have a feeling we’re going to say the same thing about “B.1.1.7” this time next year. This is the official name of the so-called U.K. variant, which is said to be 50% to 70% more contagious and potentially more lethal.
The reason so many people are talking about this now is because not only did San Diego County have the first case in the state, but we continue to have one of the largest numbers of known cases in the country. As of Wednesday’s county news conference, San Diego County had 137 confirmed cases, about a quarter of all cases nationwide, which are at 541.
Dr. Natasha Martin from UCSD presented some modeling to the County of San Diego Board of Supervisors Tuesday that should cause us all to take note. Depending on how quickly people can get vaccinated, what stays open and how much people are willing to follow recommended health precautions, San Diego County could see as many as 7,000 cases a day within six weeks, due to the B.1.1.7. Health experts expect it will become the domain strain within a matter of weeks.
To put this in perspective, on Jan. 7 the county reported 4,550 cases, which is currently the highest single day of cases.
Below is one of the slides Dr. Martin shared Tuesday. It shows what happened to cases in other places where the U.K. variant took hold.
