Today Carlsbad is reporting six new COVID-19 cases for a new total of 531. Of those, we estimate 45 are currently active. This is a big decrease from my last update, partly because the CDC has put out new guidance on how long someone is thought to be contagious, from 14 days to 10 days.
The county doesn’t report on “active” cases. This is something we calculate based on the date someone’s test is reported positive. The number is important because it tells us how many people in the community are currently contagious, and that speaks to the risk of spread – sort of.
Like all the numbers we report, active cases don’t tell the whole story. Someone could be contagious and have no symptoms. Someone could have COVID-19 and not have been tested. Someone with COVID-19 who lives in one of our neighboring cities – and therefore is not included in the Carlsbad case numbers – could run errands in Carlsbad.
This is why the best advice to stay safe and slow the spread is still to assume everyone you see could be contagious and act accordingly. I know that might sound extreme, but if everyone did this, we could get the numbers down to where businesses could reopen, schools could once again hold classes in person and other important activities could resume.
We are getting there
I am happy to report that our collective actions are starting to finally make a difference. There is a lag time between our individual behaviors and when new cases are reported. Then there is a further lag time between when new cases are reported and when people experience serious complications.
Yesterday the county reported fewer than 100 cases per 100,000 in population (the number is either 98.4 or 94.1, depending on if you’re looking at county data or state data – yes, this is confusing). With this, the county is no longer exceeding any of the state’s six triggers that put us on the watch list.
State triggers
As a reminder, the state is monitoring six areas to determine if a county needs to be on its “watch list.” Being on the watch list means counties face more health restrictions. We’ve been on the watch list since July 3. The triggers, which are explained on the state’s website, include:
