By Paul Van
In 1980 724,000 personal computers were sold in the USA. In late 1981 IBM introduced the PC and by year- end 1982, annual PC sales had quadrupled to over 2.8 million units. By 2001 over 50% of American homes had at least one PC and annual USA sales topped 49 million units. Most government, corporate and educational institution PCs were attached to powerful servers on LANs (Local Area Networks). Nearly all small business and home users however, still used PCs in “stand – alone” mode relying on locally installed software applications. The Introduction of the IW (Intelligent Web) with high speed access and AI (Artificial Intelligence) in 2001 began to change everything.
The availability of powerful servers and high speed Internet began to erode the need for local speed storage and power on home and small business PCs. Software engineers rapidly designed network versions of popular home and small business applications. These PCs began the general transition from “stand alone computers” to “ smart Internet terminals”. As the need for speed and storage capability was transferred from local PCs to Internet servers, PC prices fell and useful lifespan increased. In 2008 American PC sales peaked at about 75 million units and began a long, slow decline. By 2023 PC sales in the USA totaled only 66 million units but because of their increased longevity, the number of PCs in use continued to rise.
To the adult DIs (Digital Immigrants) of the first decade of the 21st century, the IW was simply the latest step in man’s effort to improve access to his knowledge. The IW was a source of information useful in serving their decision making process. DIs had formed their cognitive process through traditional learning methods and sources. The younger DNs (Digital Natives) had spent their pre-adult years with computer and smart phone access to the IW. The fundamental difference in the way DIs and DNs view the IW is a primary source of today’s “generation gap”.
For DNs, the IW was always there providing answer to questions and solutions to problems. With PCs and their constant companion the “smart phone”, the IW was always available becoming internalized as a part of their own cognition. The IW could provide answers with a lower energy expenditure than the alternative of mentally processing internally stored data bases. The use of the IW reduced the need to store and catalogue information. Reliance on Internet data bases for answers and solutions relieved DNs of the necessity to store and catalogue information locally, an energy intensive process. The easy availability of answers on the IW also reduced the need to “figure things out” using internally stored knowledge and cognitive resources. Recent IQ tests indicate a measurable reduction in cognitive abilities (IQs) among DNs. At least part of this decline is attributed to the DNs increasing reliance on the IW for answers as a substitute for internal cognitive process (figuring things out). The “use it or lose it” factor appears to be in play.
Throughout human history we used technology to developed tools from stone axes to space ships, to compensate for the limitations of our physicality. The effect this technology on us has been gradual and spread over millennia. Today we seek ways to overcome the limits of our minds with technology. The IW is the combination of artificial intelligence with the massive linked data storage of the Internet. Established in 2001 it portends to exceed the cognitive ability of man in many if not all endeavors. As technology has enabled mankind to overcome his physical limitations, it appears that technology will allow us to also overcome the limitations of our mind. But the triumph of AI over our internal cognition seems to be on a greatly reduced time line. Has it already begun to make noticeable changes in us?