By TR Robertson
Since 1886, Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, has been the scene of a large marmot being used as a predictor for the weather. There is
even a reference in a diary that this belief might even go back to 1840. Looking at how this came to be you have to go back to early Christianity in Europe where a religious holiday of Candlemas Day was celebrated on February 2nd. These early Christians would bring their candles to their church to have them blessed in hopes that their blessing would bring blessings and warmth to their households
for the rest of winter. An early English folk song has several lines that say, “If Candlemas be fair and bright, Come, Winter, have another flight; If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Go Winter, and come not again”. It is believed that another weather predictor that developed would lead to a traditional German belief that if a badger popped out of his hole, saw his shadow and returned to the hole, winter would go on for as many as 6 more weeks. This day was called Badger Day and February 2nd was used for the occasion. As German settlers began to sail and settle in America, this tradition led to the badger being replaced with a large rodent referred to as a groundhog or woodchuck. One of the states where a large number of these German settlers first settled was Pennsylvania. In 1887, a group of friends living in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, formed the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, which still exists to this day. There are some who believe the club was not formed until 1899. The groundhog would not be named Punxsutawney Phil until 1961 and proclaimed him to be the official weather forecaster for the area every February 2nd . Some believe the name Phil is an indirect reference to Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. The idea of the furry weather predictor has some merit since the possibility of clear weather in February in Pennsylvania rather than clear skies is slim, so overcast skies means no shadow. In 2024, Phil saw his shadow and an early Spring arrived in the area. So, it can happen.
The Groundhog Day Celebration is a huge event for Punxsutawney as crowds of as many as 40,000 people gather to see what Phil will do. This is eight times the year-round population of Punxsutawney. The crowd sizes began to swell after the 1993 Bill Murray film, “Groundhog Day”, hit the theaters. The festivities take place in an area called Gobbler’s Knob. The early morning celebration is filmed and shown worldwide. As with most things, similar celebrations have appeared around the United States with interesting names for the woodchuck involved. There is Milltown Mel in New Jersey, Great Neck Greta in Long Island, Quigley in the Hamptons, Malverne Mel also in Long Island, Staten Island Chuck in New York City, French Creek Freddie in West Virginia, Holtsville Hal in Holtsville, NY, Buckeye Chuck in Ohio and Woodstock Willie in Illinois just to name a few other weather predictors.
Whatever woodchuck you want to believe, the number one predictor is still Punxsutawney Phil. If you go to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club web site, www.groundhog.org, you can even see the year to year list of predictions and how correct Phil has been. In one study it was said he is correct 39% of the time. According to The Farmer’s Almanac, Phil is correct 50% of the time, not bad. It’s a fun event to watch, so on the evening news on February 2nd , watch the coverage and then see how accurate Phil is for the weeks to come, at least for Pennsylvania. By the way, “Groundhog Day” is a fun movie to watch.
Happy Groundhog Day and get ready for either an early Spring or a few more weeks of Winter.
